Critical Congressional Races That Could Determine House Control

Sun Jul 13 2025 12:01:52 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)
Critical Congressional Races That Could Determine House Control

With the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives at stake, key races in California, Arizona, Maine, and Ohio are drawing close attention.


As Republicans and Democrats vie for control of the U.S. House of Representatives, several pivotal races remain undecided. While Republicans are short of the 218 seats needed for a majority, Democrats are holding out hope for gains in crucial battleground states like California and Arizona.


The fate of the U.S. House of Representatives hangs in a delicate balance as key races across several states remain too close to call. As of now, Republicans find themselves seven seats shy of the 218 needed to secure control while Democrats require an additional 15 seats. The prospect of a unified Republican government under President-elect Donald Trump, who is set to take office on January 20, 2025, looms large, raising the stakes for the remaining races.

Control of the House is critical as it allows the ruling party to initiate budget legislation and pursue impeachment proceedings. Democrats remain optimistic that the last remaining votes could shift some narrowly contested seats in their favor.

One of the primary states to watch is California, where Democrats are eyeing five pivotal races. In the 45th District, incumbent Republican Congresswoman Michelle Steel currently leads Democrat Derek Tran with a modest 4-point advantage. In the 27th District, Republican Congressman Mike Garcia is narrowly ahead of Democrat George Whitesides by just 2 points. Similarly, the 41st and 22nd Districts feature incumbents Ken Calvert and David Valadao, both surviving with slim margins against their respective challengers. Democrats are also focused on the California 13th District, where Republican John Duarte is clinging to a 2-point lead over Adam Gray.

In Arizona, two districts are too close to call with margins under 2%. Republican Juan Ciscomani is holding a slight edge over Democrat Kirsten Engel in the state's 6th District, while Congressman David Schweikert leads Democrat Amish Shah by just 1% in the 1st District.

Maine's 2nd District features incumbent Democratic Congressman Jared Golden in a tight race against Austin Theriault, with Golden leading by less than a point as the tally approaches completion. In Ohio, Democratic Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur is facing a similar challenge in the 9th District against Republican Derek Merrin, with Kaptur also leading by a mere 0.3 points.

As votes continue to be counted, the outcomes of these races will significantly impact the political landscape and control of the House in the coming years.

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