Asteroid 2024 YR4 Marks Highest Recorded Impact Risk Level for Earth

Astronomers have raised alarms regarding asteroid 2024 YR4, the most significant threat recorded to date, surpassing the previously feared Apophis.

Astronomers reported on Tuesday that asteroid 2024 YR4 has become the most probable substantial space rock predicted to impact Earth. This asteroid, first identified in December, measures between 130 to 300 feet in length and is anticipated to pass extremely close to our planet in 2032. Currently, the probability of it colliding with Earth on December 22 of that year stands at 3.1%, a figure that now exceeds the previously alarming risk posed by the larger Apophis, discovered in 2004.

The rising threat level for 2024 YR4 is especially noteworthy since Apophis was initially estimated to have a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth in 2029, although subsequent observations later updated that risk to negligible for the next century. In contrast, while 2024 YR4 is significantly smaller than Apophis, its potential for devastation should not be underestimated. The impact zone's location would heavily influence the severity of any consequences, as a direct strike could potentially severely damage an urban area. Despite much of its estimated trajectory crossing over the ocean, it is essential to highlight that potential impact sites include densely populated regions such as Bogotá, Lagos, and Mumbai.

The kinetic energy of an asteroid, which helps determine its destructive potential, is largely dictated by its mass. Asteroids travel at a consistent speed of roughly 38,000 miles per hour, but the uncertainty regarding 2024 YR4’s mass complicates assessments. “Given the limited observations we have, we can only estimate its mass,” remarked Mark Boslough, a physicist from the Los Alamos National Laboratory. “The uncertainty surrounding whether it is dense or porous could significantly change the energy released upon impact or if it detonates mid-air.”