German Intelligence Agency Suggests Lab Leak Likely Behind COVID-19

The BND agency's assessment highlights a lack of consensus on the virus's origins, growing debate over the lab leak theory, and China's ongoing denial of the claims.

Germany's foreign intelligence service, the BND, reportedly assessed that there was an 80-90% probability that the coronavirus pandemic stemmed from an accidental leak at a Chinese lab. Two media outlets in Germany uncovered this information regarding an assessment conducted in 2020 but never publicly released. According to the reports, BND found pertinent evidence indicating that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had engaged in experiments that modified viruses to enhance their transmissibility to humans.

Despite the revelations, China has continued to reject the lab leak theory, asserting that the origins of COVID-19 should be established through scientific inquiry. The Chinese foreign ministry pointed to a World Health Organization (WHO) investigation concluding that a lab leak was "extremely unlikely." However, a growing number of scientists are beginning to challenge the original findings of the WHO, which were supported by a joint expert team investigating Wuhan in early 2021.

The lab leak theory was initially controversial but has gained traction, especially among certain intelligence agencies worldwide. In January, the US CIA stated that it believed the virus was "more likely" to have escaped from a lab rather than originating from animal hosts. The findings from the BND's investigation, conducted under the name Project Saaremaa, were shared with the CIA in the autumn of last year, but conclusive evidence supporting the lab leak theory remains elusive.

The BND's report indicated that while its assessment leaned towards the lab-origin theory, it could not provide definitive proof. Both the intelligence agency and Germany’s current Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, have refrained from commenting further on this assessment. As the debate around the origins of COVID-19 continues, views remain polarized with some researchers questioning the full legitimacy of the WHO's initial report and advocating for deeper investigations into the lab-leak hypothesis.