Trump's Return Sparks Concerns Over Climate Commitment

Experts warn that Trump's presidency may lead to a halt in progress toward emission reductions and funding for developing nations, further complicating international climate negotiations.

Donald Trump’s recent electoral success has raised alarm bells among climate experts, who fear it may significantly impede efforts to combat climate change in the immediate future. With the COP29 UN climate talks approaching, many view his victory as a serious obstacle to advancing initiatives aimed at both reducing emissions and securing vital financial resources for developing countries.

As a known climate skeptic, Trump has previously dismissed renewable energy initiatives as a "scam." Despite this, an increasing public interest in wind and solar energy in the U.S. may limit his ability to push for oil and gas dominance. The intense hurricane seasons in recent years have underscored the realities of climate change, yet the issue received minimal focus during his campaign.

Unlike in 2017, when Trump announced the U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement, this time he could act more swiftly. With a much shorter withdrawal timeline, he would be able to implement his agenda without international oversight, potentially undermining the Paris Agreement’s collective goals.

Prof. Richard Klein from the Stockholm Environment Institute described the U.S. position at the upcoming COP talks as “not just lame duck, but dead duck,” due to an inability to make binding commitments. This situation weakens the negotiating power of other nations, like China, which may feel less compelled to contribute to global climate funds without U.S. pressure.

In recent years, wealthier nations have sought to increase financial assistance for developing countries to combat climate impacts. However, with Trump back in power, such initiatives might falter. As an example, the U.S. had previously pushed for China to contribute to climate funding but may now be unable to do so.

In the context of domestic policy, Trump’s administration is likely to aggressively promote oil and gas exploration while rolling back environmental regulations. This includes potential tariffs on renewable energy imports from China, responding to an overall “drill baby drill” ethos.

However, amid concerns about diminished support for renewables, the longer-term trajectory remains uncertain. The investments in clean technology continue to outpace fossil fuel investments, with substantial support in Republican districts coming from Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.

While some hope that the transition to a sustainable economy will remain strong, the recent electoral outcome has nevertheless dealt a significant blow to international climate initiatives. Former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres emphasized that although the election results are concerning, they will not derail the inevitable progress towards decarbonization and the goals of the Paris Agreement.