Key Players in Ukraine War Talks: Alignments and Concerns

This week marks pivotal discussions on the Ukraine war in Paris and Riyadh, where European leaders and US officials converge to shape responses to Russia. Key participants like Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Tusk grapple with defense spending and the implications of Trump’s negotiations with Putin, while Ukraine remains absent from these crucial dialogues.

This week is poised to be significant for the ongoing war in Ukraine, as negotiations unfold simultaneously in Paris and Riyadh. European leaders convene in France, urgently seeking to counter Donald Trump’s proposal to negotiate with Vladimir Putin, aiming to establish peace in the region. Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are set to meet to discuss the conflict. Notably, Ukraine will not participate in either conversation.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion launched in February 2022, overwhelming Kyiv and seizing over 20% of its territory, diplomatic stakes have risen. BBC analysts outline the hopes each key player harbors from these talks.

**European Leaders in Paris**
Political Correspondent Harry Farley reports that Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the UK Labour Party, aims to connect European leaders with Trump's administration by addressing defense spending issues. Starmer has suggested sending UK troops to Ukraine as part of a broader deterrence strategy to prevent further Russia aggression. This marks a notable shift from previous UK policy that reinforced Ukraine's autonomy over peace discussions. There are calls for increased defense spending, with Labour pledging a gradual rise from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP, though the timeline for these increases remains unclear.

**Germany's Position**
Damien McGuinness, Germany correspondent, notes the urgency in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s presence at the talks given the impending national elections. German leaders are alarmed by suggestions of a negotiated peace that sidelines Ukraine and the EU. Despite political divisions and concerns over militarization, Germany maintains robust support for Ukraine, aware that a poor peace deal could undermine national security.

**Poland's Defiance**
Reporting from Warsaw, Sarah Rainsford highlights Poland's steadfast support for Ukraine, stressing the necessity of denying Russian victory for Europe’s security. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has voiced that failure to enhance defense could lead to dire consequences, emphasizing Poland's military investment near 5% of GDP. However, the government remains cautious about deploying Polish forces to enforce any ceasefire.

**Nordic and Baltic Concerns**
Nick Beake, correspondent in Copenhagen, addresses Denmark’s role as a representative for Baltic states vulnerable to potential aggression. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s recent diplomatic efforts to consolidate European alliances signify an urgent response to the fluctuating security landscape shaped by US policy.

**French Initiatives**
French President Emmanuel Macron has convened the gathering in Paris to ensure a collaborative European response amid the unpredictability of US negotiations. François Heisbourg, a noted French military strategist, emphasizes the need for better coordination, signaling a potential shift toward a more united European front.

**The Context in Saudi Arabia**
In Riyadh, Liza Fokht reports that Russia seeks recognition for its territorial claims while aiming for sanction relief. However, European nations vehemently oppose these conditions, emphasizing the need for Russian concessions. The focus centers around national dialogues led predominantly by the US, with much uncertainty regarding the outcomes.

**The US Stance**
Bernd Debusmann Jr. reveals that the dynamics within US negotiations reflect a desire to reduce involvement in the Ukraine conflict while stopping the fighting. Trump’s aim for limited American engagement raises concerns among European allies, given his mixed signals regarding Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

**Ukraine’s Unease**
Mariana Matveichuk, reporting from Kyiv, captures the uncertainty faced by Ukrainians longing for peace amidst a war that has deeply scarred their homeland. Ukraine insists on being part of any dialogue regarding its fate, reflecting apprehensions that past agreements may ultimately lead to further hostilities without substantial guarantees.

As negotiations progress, the absence of Ukraine from these critical discussions and the varying interests of the involved powers will significantly shape the future of the region, leaving many unresolved questions regarding sovereignty and security guarantees.