India's recent population surge has sparked a debate over fertility rates, with leaders in southern states advocating for larger families to counteract declining birth rates and an ageing demographic. As the country grapples with potential electoral implications and resource allocations, experts warn of the challenges posed by a growing elderly population in the face of falling birth rates.
India's Population Dilemma: As Fertility Rates Fall, Calls for More Children Grow
India's Population Dilemma: As Fertility Rates Fall, Calls for More Children Grow
Despite being the world's most populous country, India's leaders push for increased birth rates, citing concerns of an ageing population.
In 2022, India overtook China to become the world's most populous nation, housing nearly 1.45 billion individuals. Surprisingly, the country now finds itself in discussions about increasing birth rates. Leaders from Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have pushed for greater childbearing to address their concerns about low fertility rates and an ageing population. Andhra Pradesh is considering offering incentives for larger families, having recently abolished its "two-child policy" for local elections, with similar reports emerging from Telangana. Tamil Nadu is expressing its own urgency in addressing declining population figures.
Over the decades, India's fertility rate has plummeted from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to approximately two today, coinciding with replacement-level fertility falling below the threshold of two births per woman in 17 out of 29 states. The five southern states have led this demographic shift, surpassing replacement levels much earlier than their northern counterparts.
However, southern states apprehend that the impending 2026 delimitation of electoral seats may disadvantage them due to their effective population control policies. They worry that their lower fertility rates could lead to a loss of parliamentary representation and diminished federal revenues. The demographics support this concern, as populous northern states are projected to gain from delimitation while southern states may face cuts, exacerbating their financial strain.
Demographers remind states that proactive negotiations between federal and state governments can alleviate these tensions, but the overarching challenge lies in the inevitability of India's rapid ageing process linked to lowered fertility rates. Projections indicate that India will reach significant ageing milestones far quicker than nations with historical fertility declines, with adverse implications for economic resources and social safety nets since the poorest segment bears a disproportionate share of the ageing population.
Failure to adapt to these evolving demographics places significant pressure on India's healthcare and social infrastructure. Critics argue that increasing calls for larger families, as voiced by leaders like Mohan Bhagwat, principal of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, may be misguided. Demographers affirm that extremely low fertility rates can lead to rapid population decline, invoking caution.
Lessons from countries like South Korea and Greece, where plummeting birth rates have led to "national emergencies," suggest that focusing on enhancing the quality of life and productivity for older populations is essential. India must consider extending retirement ages and encourage healthy active ageing to optimize its demographic dividend.
Srinivas Goli highlights a critical window of opportunity until 2047 for India to capitalize on its demographic advantages, signaling the need for policies that promote economic growth and security for its ageing populace, while optimizing resources for a future marked by economic challenges and demographic shifts.
Over the decades, India's fertility rate has plummeted from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to approximately two today, coinciding with replacement-level fertility falling below the threshold of two births per woman in 17 out of 29 states. The five southern states have led this demographic shift, surpassing replacement levels much earlier than their northern counterparts.
However, southern states apprehend that the impending 2026 delimitation of electoral seats may disadvantage them due to their effective population control policies. They worry that their lower fertility rates could lead to a loss of parliamentary representation and diminished federal revenues. The demographics support this concern, as populous northern states are projected to gain from delimitation while southern states may face cuts, exacerbating their financial strain.
Demographers remind states that proactive negotiations between federal and state governments can alleviate these tensions, but the overarching challenge lies in the inevitability of India's rapid ageing process linked to lowered fertility rates. Projections indicate that India will reach significant ageing milestones far quicker than nations with historical fertility declines, with adverse implications for economic resources and social safety nets since the poorest segment bears a disproportionate share of the ageing population.
Failure to adapt to these evolving demographics places significant pressure on India's healthcare and social infrastructure. Critics argue that increasing calls for larger families, as voiced by leaders like Mohan Bhagwat, principal of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, may be misguided. Demographers affirm that extremely low fertility rates can lead to rapid population decline, invoking caution.
Lessons from countries like South Korea and Greece, where plummeting birth rates have led to "national emergencies," suggest that focusing on enhancing the quality of life and productivity for older populations is essential. India must consider extending retirement ages and encourage healthy active ageing to optimize its demographic dividend.
Srinivas Goli highlights a critical window of opportunity until 2047 for India to capitalize on its demographic advantages, signaling the need for policies that promote economic growth and security for its ageing populace, while optimizing resources for a future marked by economic challenges and demographic shifts.
