The 2023 presidential election in Cameroon pits incumbency against a fragmented opposition, raising questions about the effectiveness of challengers amid historical election vulnerabilities.
Is Paul Biya Facing Real Opposition for an Eighth Term in Cameroon?
Is Paul Biya Facing Real Opposition for an Eighth Term in Cameroon?
Analysis of the upcoming presidential election amidst the exclusion of Maurice Kamto and the rise of new challengers.
In an unexpected turn of events, Cameroon's Constitutional Council upheld the exclusion of Maurice Kamto, the prominent opposition leader, from running in the looming presidential election slated for October 12. While Kamto's removal stirred controversy, it has cleared the way for 92-year-old President Paul Biya, who seeks his eighth consecutive term after nearly 43 years in power.
This exclusion stems from an internal conflict within Kamto's Manidem party, which saw a rival faction endorse another candidate, ultimately sidelining Kamto. His legal team condemned the decision, asserting that it was politically motivated rather than lawful.
Out of 83 candidates vying for the presidency, only 12 have gained approval, with reasons for disqualification ranging from incomplete application files to issues regarding candidate representation. Among the candidates, six are considered significant contenders:
1. **Paul Biya**: As the world’s longest-serving head of state, Biya has never faced electoral defeat since reintroducing multi-party politics in 1990. His administration has consistently been criticized for allegations of electoral fraud — accusations he and his party vehemently deny. Despite these controversies, he remains the favorite, particularly following Kamto's disqualification. Biya promises to focus on women and youth in his potential new term.
2. **Bello Bouba Maigari**: At 78, Maigari leads the National Union for Democracy and Progress and previously served as Biya's prime minister. In a notable political shift, he announced his candidacy after facing pressure within his party to run independently, breaking a long-standing alliance with Biya.
3. **Issa Tchiroma Bakary**: Another former ally of Biya, Tchiroma, 75, declared his candidacy after stepping down from his ministerial role. Leading the Cameroon National Salvation Front, he criticizes Biya’s administration and advocates for systematic changes.
4. **Cabral Libii**: The vibrant 40-year-old leader of the Cameroon Party for National Reconciliation is making his second bid for presidency. He has garnered attention for his significant parliamentary success, leading his party to win seats in recent elections.
5. **Akere Muna**: A seasoned anti-corruption lawyer from a prominent political family, Muna aims to confront Biya directly after previously lending support to Kamto in the 2018 elections. He pledges to combat corruption and revitalise governance in Cameroon.
6. **Joshua Osih**: Heading the Social Democratic Front, Osih enters the race again post his fourth-place finish in the last election. He's advocating for reform and revitalization of his party, addressing the decline in its influence.
Political analysts suggest that although these candidates might alleviate some electoral pressure on Biya, their historical ties to the regime may undermine their credibility. Dr. Pippie Hugues of the Nkafu Policy Institute expressed skepticism about their ability to attract opposition voters due to their previous affiliations with Biya's government.
The fragmentation of the opposition predates this election, making it vital for the candidates to consider unity. Civil society leaders argue that a consolidated opposition could significantly increase their chances against Biya, likening the current situation to previous elections where disunity led to losses.
Activists have proposed a coalition to establish a “consensual candidate” to rally the fragmented opposition. Meetings have been convened, aiming to unite various factions and propose a credible alternative to Biya, whose decades of governance pose a formidable barrier for change.
As the election approaches, the dynamics of Cameroon's political landscape remain precariously balanced between the incumbency of Biya and the aspirations of a divided opposition. The effectiveness of the challengers will be tested in what could decide the future trajectory of this politically rich but tumultuous nation.
This exclusion stems from an internal conflict within Kamto's Manidem party, which saw a rival faction endorse another candidate, ultimately sidelining Kamto. His legal team condemned the decision, asserting that it was politically motivated rather than lawful.
Out of 83 candidates vying for the presidency, only 12 have gained approval, with reasons for disqualification ranging from incomplete application files to issues regarding candidate representation. Among the candidates, six are considered significant contenders:
1. **Paul Biya**: As the world’s longest-serving head of state, Biya has never faced electoral defeat since reintroducing multi-party politics in 1990. His administration has consistently been criticized for allegations of electoral fraud — accusations he and his party vehemently deny. Despite these controversies, he remains the favorite, particularly following Kamto's disqualification. Biya promises to focus on women and youth in his potential new term.
2. **Bello Bouba Maigari**: At 78, Maigari leads the National Union for Democracy and Progress and previously served as Biya's prime minister. In a notable political shift, he announced his candidacy after facing pressure within his party to run independently, breaking a long-standing alliance with Biya.
3. **Issa Tchiroma Bakary**: Another former ally of Biya, Tchiroma, 75, declared his candidacy after stepping down from his ministerial role. Leading the Cameroon National Salvation Front, he criticizes Biya’s administration and advocates for systematic changes.
4. **Cabral Libii**: The vibrant 40-year-old leader of the Cameroon Party for National Reconciliation is making his second bid for presidency. He has garnered attention for his significant parliamentary success, leading his party to win seats in recent elections.
5. **Akere Muna**: A seasoned anti-corruption lawyer from a prominent political family, Muna aims to confront Biya directly after previously lending support to Kamto in the 2018 elections. He pledges to combat corruption and revitalise governance in Cameroon.
6. **Joshua Osih**: Heading the Social Democratic Front, Osih enters the race again post his fourth-place finish in the last election. He's advocating for reform and revitalization of his party, addressing the decline in its influence.
Political analysts suggest that although these candidates might alleviate some electoral pressure on Biya, their historical ties to the regime may undermine their credibility. Dr. Pippie Hugues of the Nkafu Policy Institute expressed skepticism about their ability to attract opposition voters due to their previous affiliations with Biya's government.
The fragmentation of the opposition predates this election, making it vital for the candidates to consider unity. Civil society leaders argue that a consolidated opposition could significantly increase their chances against Biya, likening the current situation to previous elections where disunity led to losses.
Activists have proposed a coalition to establish a “consensual candidate” to rally the fragmented opposition. Meetings have been convened, aiming to unite various factions and propose a credible alternative to Biya, whose decades of governance pose a formidable barrier for change.
As the election approaches, the dynamics of Cameroon's political landscape remain precariously balanced between the incumbency of Biya and the aspirations of a divided opposition. The effectiveness of the challengers will be tested in what could decide the future trajectory of this politically rich but tumultuous nation.
