Russia's Worries Rise Amid the Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict

As the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies, Russia finds itself navigating the precarious balance of political relationships while fearing potential losses in the region.

While the headlines across Russian media reflect alarm over Israel's military maneuvers, there are also mentions of opportunities for Russia, including an anticipated increase in oil prices that could provide a financial boon to the nation. Russian officials noted that the chaos could distract from the ongoing war in Ukraine, with some media outlets suggesting that "Kyiv has been forgotten."

However, as the conflict deepens, Russian experts caution that the Kremlin has more to lose than gain. Andrei Kortunov, a political scientist, highlighted in the business daily Kommersant that Moscow's power to influence the current situation is limited. Despite a recent strategic partnership deal with Iran, Russia is not obligated to provide military support if Iran faces Israeli aggression. This was made clear when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted the importance of cooperation for peace, rather than military alliance.

Russia's reliance on Iranian technology, particularly Shahed drones for its military actions in Ukraine, underscores the strategic stakes involved. Yet, the recent loss of Bashar al-Assad as a reliable ally raises further concerns about the stability of Moscow’s relationships in the region. The prospect of losing another partner as the situation evolves is troubling for the Kremlin.

As Putin attends the International Economic Forum in St Petersburg, his messages and strategies concerning the escalating turmoil in the Middle East and their impact on Russia’s global standing will be closely scrutinized. The event is expected to draw representatives from over 140 regions, allowing Russia to showcase its resilience in the face of ongoing geopolitical isolation due to the war in Ukraine, all while balancing precarious international alliances.