Analyzing Hungary's Gains and Losses Following Orban's Meeting with Trump

Sat Nov 08 2025 22:18:20 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

Prime Minister Viktor Orban's recent visit to the U.S. brought major energy deals but fell short of some expected political concessions amidst rising tensions in European energy security.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban secured a year-long exemption from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and gas during a meeting with former President Donald Trump. This diplomatic engagement saw Hungary commit to energy deals involving U.S. gas, nuclear power, and modular reactors, highlighting the complexities of shifting dependencies in energy supplies. However, Orban's failure to restore the U.S. visa waiver system and make progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict leaves questions on the long-term implications of these agreements for Hungary.

On the surface, the Hungarian prime minister's trip was exactly what he went to Washington for: luxuriant praise and an exemption from sanctions on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear supplies.

And all that just five months out from a difficult election.

However, the reality is more complex. The U.S. imposed tough trade conditions, making the deal costly for Hungary. Additionally, there has been no progress on Viktor Orban's pressing concern: resolving the ongoing war in neighboring Ukraine, which casts a long shadow over Hungary.

Orban's key accomplishment was a year-long exemption from U.S. sanctions. This timeframe appears strategically aligned with Trump’s support aimed at aiding Orban's re-election campaign in April. Nonetheless, there's no clear commitment from Orban to comply with EU demands to cease imports of Russian energy by 2027, unlike the Czech government.

Underneath the media spotlight, Hungarian energy company MOL has been transitioning two of its refineries to process non-Russian crude. They claim that 80% of oil could be routed through an Adria pipeline from Croatia, albeit at an increased logistical cost.

From the invasion of Ukraine until the end of 2024, Hungary and Slovakia have reportedly paid Russia $13 billion for oil.

This U.S. exemption offers Hungarian households a reprieve this winter. Utility bills, which Orban has vowed to keep stable since 2013, were at risk of skyrocketing.

Orban also agreed to purchase U.S. nuclear fuel rods for Hungary’s Paks 1 nuclear station, helping potentially to uplift a long-stalled project associated with Russian financing.

Importantly, Hungary plans to procure up to ten small modular nuclear reactors from the U.S., with costs estimated between $10 billion and $20 billion, aiming to meet energy demands for upcoming battery plants.

In between this agreement, the establishment of a currency swap deal is under discussion to bolster Hungary's financial security in times of crisis.

In summary, Hungary's agreement emerged as an exchange for the continued import of U.S. energy resources in light of temporary sanctions relief from Russian sources. However, significant aspirations such as re-establishing the U.S. visa waiver system and advancing peace talks concerning Ukraine went unfulfilled.

This situation raises questions about Hungary's future energy dependencies, speculated to be shifting from Russia towards the U.S.