Impending Military Action: Seven Possible Scenarios for US Strikes on Iran

Sun Feb 01 2026 10:52:11 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

As tensions heighten, the prospects of a US military strike on Iran loom large, raising critical questions about potential outcomes. Explore the seven scenarios that could unfold from such an event.

The potential for US military action against Iran has sparked discussions about various outcomes. From a surgical strike leading to democracy to chaos and humanitarian crises, experts outline seven possible scenarios that could result from a US attack on Iran. Each scenario presents its own implications for regional stability, military dynamics, and global security considerations.

The US appears poised to strike Iran within days. While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not. So, if no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump decides to order US forces to attack, then what are the possible outcomes?

1. Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties, a transition to democracy

US air and naval forces conduct limited, precision strikes targeting military bases of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), ballistic missile launch sites, and Iran's nuclear programme. This could lead to a transition towards a democratic regime, although optimistically so, as historical interventions have not always led to democratic stability.

2. Regime survives but moderates its policies

In a scenario akin to the Venezuelan model, the Iranian regime remains intact but moderates its extremism in response to US action, possibly curtailing support for militias and nuclear ambitions. However, given the regime's history of defiance, this outcome seems uncertain.

3. Regime collapses, replaced by military rule

This outcome is deemed likely, where ongoing protests could falter amid the establishment of a military government, primarily composed of IRGC figures leveraging the chaos to maintain power.

4. Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighbors

Iran has vowed retaliation and could target US bases or allies in the Gulf, demonstrating its capacity for strikes using missiles and drones, thereby heightening regional tensions.

5. Iran retaliates by laying mines in the Gulf

Mining the critical Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global oil transport and heighten international tensions, reflecting Iran's previous tactics during conflicts.

6. Iran retaliates, sinking a US warship

A potential swarm attack on a US naval ship poses a risk that could lead to significant military consequences and a massive reputation blow to the US.

7. Regime collapses, replaced by chaos

The aftermath of a US strike could erupt into civil war or ethnic conflicts, leading to a humanitarian crisis. As no one desires such chaos to ensue in Iran, the implications for the region and the world could be disastrous.

A primary concern is that President Trump, having amassed military strength near Iran, may be compelled to act, potentially starting a conflict without a clear resolution in sight.