Vladimir Putin may have a reputation among some as a ruthless autocrat, a master manipulator of the international scene. But one thing Russia's president does not have is a poker face. The late US Senator John McCain used to joke that when he looked into Putin's eyes, he saw three things, 'a K and a G and a B', referencing his past life as a Soviet intelligence officer. I thought of this as I watched footage of Russia's leader sitting opposite American envoys in the Kremlin; he could not hide his emotions; he exuded an air of supreme confidence.
President Putin believes the diplomatic tide has turned in his favor, claiming improvements in relations with America and military gains on the battlefield. Analysts indicate that he lacks incentive to compromise, demanding territorial concessions from Ukraine and a reduction of its military capabilities.
Possible scenarios include US President Donald Trump's attempts to broker a ceasefire unfavorable to Ukraine, hinting that he might disengage if negotiations fail. Additionally, the war may simply continue with Russia slowly advancing.
Should Europe intensify its military support for Ukraine, there is potential for a stronger deterrent against Russian aggression. The European Sky Shield Initiative seeks to bolster air defenses, yet some suggest ground troops could also be necessary. Others argue that empowering Ukraine to fight 'tonight' may require a long-term strategy for an extended conflict, complicating diplomatic resolutions.
Meanwhile, sanctions have impacted Russia's economy, but strong enforcement measures are needed to affect Kremlin policies. Any shifts in public opinion in Russia may take time, and the public remains largely supportive of Putin's war efforts.
Diplomatically, there may be opportunities through negotiations if Putin can be offered a face-saving exit strategy, potentially modeled on previous ceasefires. China's role is also pivotal; if President Xi Jinping presses Putin toward compromise, it could alter the course of the war. For now, the world watches and waits as this complex situation evolves.
