The Spread of Coup Rumors: A Pan-Africanist Movement or Disinformation Campaign?

Recent unfounded rumors of a coup in Ivory Coast, amplified by pan-Africanist influencers, have sparked concern and highlighted the fragility of trust in the region's political landscape, especially with elections approaching.

In May, residents of Abidjan, Ivory Coast's capital, were alarmed by alarming rumors of a coup circulating on social media. Mafalda Marchioro, a management consultant living there, felt the impact as friends from abroad reached out to confirm her safety amid escalating tensions. Despite the shocking claims and videos of soldiers in the streets circulating widely, these provocations were rooted in disinformation.

This episode exemplifies broader trends in West Africa, where actual military takeovers have left communities wary and skeptical of political stability. With Ivory Coast poised to face presidential elections later this year, disinformation regarding coups has become increasingly prominent, targeting President Alassane Ouattarra, who is expected to seek a fourth term and is viewed as pro-Western.

Communications Minister Amadou Coulibaly traced the rumors to "neighboring countries," suggesting they originated amid a deteriorating relationship with Burkina Faso, spurred by antagonistic online discourse. Influencers advocating for a pan-Africanist agenda, often rejecting Western ties and displaying support for military leaders in the region, have disseminated these claims to stir up distrust in established political systems.

Alex Vines of Chatham House notes that these influencers are intentionally spreading uncertainty about current leadership, appealing to public desires for leaders who showcase African resilience and independence. However, although some narratives resemble elements associated with Russian influence operations, there's currently no direct evidence linking Russia to these specific disinformation campaigns, despite historical precedents.

As tensions between Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast have risen, influencers from Burkina Faso—such as Harouna Sawadogo—have exploited social media to amplify the misinformation. His videos, rife with false claims and sensationalist rhetoric, quickly amassed significant views across platforms, sparking regional discourse. The cascading effects of these rumors extend outside Francophone West Africa, reaching a wider audience in Nigeria and Kenya, igniting further speculation.

A cross-examination of social media reveals the deep-seated interest in narratives surrounding figures like Capt Ibrahim Traoré, Burkina Faso's military leader. Content creation echoes the sentiments of frustrated youth yearning for change while harboring resentment towards past colonial ties. This essential narrative plays into an increasing appetite for assertive governance that prioritizes developmental needs over past colonial influences.

The involvement of opportunistic influencers transforming national affairs into engaging content challenges the integrity of pan-Africanist movements. Some observers commend the musicians and content creators for stirring political engagement but view their methods as exploitative. Kenyan academic Karuti Kanyinga emphasized that promoting distorted narratives does not reflect authentic pan-African values; rather, it undermines cooperative political discourse.

As these influencers continue to spread the narrative of coups, they have inadvertently cultivated public unease among citizens, leading to genuine fears about political stability. The burgeoning class of social media influencers attracted to these provocative stories reflects the challenge of separating well-intentioned discourse from malicious disinformation. As the October elections loom, the ramifications of calls for regime change and the churn of disinformation present a precarious landscape for Ivory Coast.