Understanding the Hidden Reality: Insights into Undocumented Indians in the United States

The undocumented Indian population in the U.S. is a significant yet often overlooked demographic. New research highlights the complexities in estimating their numbers, changing migration routes, and the driving forces behind their quest for asylum.

A recent analysis by researchers Abby Budiman and Devesh Kapur from Johns Hopkins University has unveiled critical insights into the undocumented Indian immigrant population in the United States, a demographic that has been largely underappreciated yet is significantly impacted by ongoing immigration policies.

Former President Donald Trump has made mass deportation of undocumented immigrants a hallmark of his administration. Reports indicate the U.S. government has identified approximately 18,000 Indian nationals believed to have entered the country illegally. Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged the dilemma and announced that India would facilitate the return of its nationals living illegally in the U.S., emphasizing the vulnerabilities these individuals face. His remarks highlighted that many were drawn by enticing promises of a better life, underscoring a growing concern about human trafficking networks capitalizing on this migration.

The new research presents a range of striking findings regarding undocumented Indians, particularly their demographics, entry methods, and the geographical distribution within the U.S. Statistics from the Pew Research Center and the Center for Migration Studies estimate around 700,000 undocumented Indians as of 2022, making them the third-largest group of unauthorized immigrants. This contrasts starkly with estimates from the Migration Policy Institute, which cites 375,000, and official government figures from the Department of Homeland Security, reporting 220,000 undocumented Indians.

These discrepancies highlight the challenges in obtaining accurate figures regarding undocumented populations. Nonetheless, it is evident that the number of undocumented Indians has decreased considerably from a peak of 560,000 in 2016, primarily due to some individuals obtaining legal status and others returning home, possibly exacerbated by the hardships brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite a surge in border encounters, the overall undocumented Indian population maintained a steady figure from 2020 to 2022. Interestingly, data reveals that visa overstays among Indians remain consistent at around 1.5%. In addition, the decline in Indian recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program has raised concerns, with numbers falling from 2,600 in 2017 to just 1,600 in 2024.

Shifting migration patterns also reveal that predominant crossing routes for undocumented Indians have changed dramatically since 2010. The majority of encounters now occur at the southern U.S.-Mexico border; however, a notable increase in crossings at the U.S.-Canada border has been observed, with these encounters rising from 4% to a staggering 36% in just a year.

The states densely populated with Indian immigrants also host a significant number of undocumented individuals. California, Texas, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois report the highest populations of unauthorized Indian immigrants, while Indian nationals comprise a substantial part of the undocumented population in states like Ohio, Michigan, and New Jersey.

A critical aspect explored in the research is the growing number of Indian asylum seekers. Between 2021 and 2023, Indian asylum requests surged from about 5,000 to over 51,000, marking a dramatic increase. The study indicates that many of these asylum seekers hail from wealthier states like Punjab and Gujarat, revealing that the majority are not fleeing economic hardship but are rather seeking better opportunities.

Interestingly, the flow of economic migrants from relatively affluent areas highlights the complexities of illegal migration, which often necessitates substantial financial resources to undertake the perilous journey to the U.S.

In conclusion, while rising asylum claims may seem associated with increasing unrest in India, researchers argue that the long-standing patterns of migration fueled by desires for improved living conditions and economic aspirations play a significant role. With substantial remittances flowing back to India—estimated at $120 billion in 2023—this reflects an enduring drive for better lives, further complicated by the intricate web of factors influencing migration today.