Bangladesh and Pakistan Forge New Ties Amid Historical Tensions

Following political shifts in Bangladesh, the country is rekindling ties with Pakistan, including trade agreements and military cooperation, which raises concerns for India amid deep-rooted historical animosities.

The recent political shake-up in Bangladesh, culminating in the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has ushered in unexpected diplomatic developments between Bangladesh and Pakistan. For the first time in decades, the nations have embarked on direct trade, with Bangladesh importing 50,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan, signaling a shift towards normalized relations.

This warming interaction encompasses more than just economic exchanges. Direct flights have been reinstated, military contacts are flourishing, and visa processes have been simplified, pointing toward a significant rekindling of ties after years of estrangement. The history of conflict between the two nations, underscored by the traumas of Bangladesh's fight for independence in 1971, adds layers of complexity to these newly established connections.

Historian and former Bangladeshi diplomat Humayun Kabir notes that the relationship is evolving into that of "two normal neighbours" after decades of diplomatic tension, particularly during Hasina's pro-India administration. India's reactions, on the other hand, remain cautious; the country has not complied with Bangladesh's calls for Hasina's extradition to face various criminal charges.

Analysts suggest that the alliance is a strategic maneuver against India's regional dominance, with Ayesha Siddiqa, a Pakistani academic, commenting on the "tactical relationship" forming between the two countries. Other diplomatic efforts include meetings between Bangladesh's interim leadership, represented by Muhammad Yunus, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at numerous international forums, indicating a blossoming bilateral interest.

Tensions between India and both neighboring countries persist, especially concerning security and military collaboration. Veena Sikri, a former high commissioner to Bangladesh from India, highlights that this revival of military relations poses a "major security concern" for New Delhi as similar historical allegations of cross-border insurgency and training resurface.

The pressing historical grievances, particularly those surrounding the devastating consequences of the 1971 war, continue to beset relations. Bangladesh seeks a formal apology from Pakistan for the atrocities committed during its fight for independence, while Pakistan remains reluctant. Former military officers in Pakistan acknowledge the weight of this historical divide, arguing that progress hinges on acknowledging the past.

Despite these historical burdens, some economists advocate for a focus on strengthening economic ties first. Currently, trade between the countries is minimal, valued at under $700 million, predominantly favoring Pakistan. Scholars propose that reducing trade barriers and improving bilateral relations could enhance economic exchanges in the future.

Looking ahead, the upcoming visit of Pakistan's foreign minister to Dhaka, alongside Bangladesh's impending general elections, could shape new foreign policy directions. Standing at the heart of these developments, India views a stable and cooperative Bangladesh as essential for safeguarding its northeastern territories.