France's Political Turmoil: The Crisis Unveiled and Future Prospects

François Bayrou, the French prime minister, is set to lose a confidence vote on his stewardship, in the latest twist in a period of chaos inside the National Assembly. Bayrou, 74, is the fourth prime minister in two years under President Emmanuel Macron, whose second term in office has been overshadowed by political instability. Bayrou's minority government called for €44bn (£38bn) of budget cuts to tackle France's mounting public debt and is now heading for collapse.

How did we get here?

French President Emmanuel Macron took a gamble in June 2024. Faced with a bruising loss for his party in the European Parliament vote, he called a snap parliamentary election which he hoped would achieve 'a clear majority in serenity and harmony'. Instead, it resulted in a hung, divided parliament that has made it difficult for any prime minister to garner the necessary support to pass bills and the yearly budget.

Why is France in debt crisis?

Simply put, France's government has for decades spent more money than it has generated. As a result, it has to borrow to cover its budget. The French government states that, in early 2025, public debt stood at €3,345 billion, or 114% of GDP. This is the third-highest public debt in the eurozone. Two years ago, France raised the pension age from 62 to 64, highlighting the need for reform in its generous social programs.

What happens next?

If Bayrou loses the vote in the National Assembly, France is likely heading for another period of doubt and speculation. President Macron will need to quickly appoint a new prime minister or face calls for another Assembly dissolution. There is also pressure for Macron's resignation, but this is seen as unlikely.

Who could replace Bayrou?

If Bayrou falls, pressure will be strong on Macron to name a successor from the left, possibly Olivier Faure of the Socialist Party. However, if Macron continues with the center-right strategy, he might choose from figures like defence minister Sebastien Lecornu. The selection of a new prime minister could greatly influence France's path as the 2027 presidential election looms.