PARIS (CIVITAS.GLOBAL) — France is facing its third prime ministerial crisis in less than a year as incumbent François Bayrou approaches a critical parliamentary confidence vote. The 74-year-old centrist prime minister, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron just nine months ago, is expected to struggle in securing support for his government in the exceptionally divided National Assembly, potentially deepening instability in the European Union's second-largest economy.
Bayrou, advocating for necessary public spending cuts to address France’s escalating state deficit, is calling on lawmakers to unite behind his budget measures. However, opposition members plan to leverage this vote to topple his minority government, forcing Macron to seek another successor.
A key moment
Bayrou’s extraordinary parliamentary session, occurring at 3 p.m. local time, interrupts the National Assembly's summer recess. Lawmakers will listen to Bayrou’s address—expected to underline the importance of fiscal restraint—before casting their votes in the late afternoon. A majority vote against Bayrou would constitutionally require his resignation, plunging the government into renewed crisis.
The road to uncertainty
Macron's plans to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024 aimed at consolidating his pro-European alliance backfired, leading to a fragmented legislative body. This has impeded his domestic agenda during his second and final presidential term, which concludes in 2027. The recent rotations in prime ministerial leadership reflect ongoing challenges in building a stable governing majority amid partisan tensions.
Bayrou’s lament
Opposing factions collectively hold over 320 seats, overwhelming the 210 centrists and conservative allies. Bayrou expressed frustration, highlighting the illogicality of political rivals uniting against him despite fundamental ideological differences. What’s the point of bringing down the government? he questioned in an interview.
Confronting budgetary issues
Should Bayrou fall, Macron faces the daunting task of nominating a new prime minister tasked with addressing the same fiscal challenges. Bayrou's plans call for a substantial 44 billion euro cut to government spending in 2026 as France grapples with its 5.8% deficit, far exceeding the EU's mandated 3% target. Meanwhile, the nation's debt, projected to hit a staggering 3.346 trillion euros, constitutes a critical concern as servicing it consumes significant portions of the national budget.
With proposed reductions, including the removal of public holidays, Bayrou’s fiscal strategies have faced fierce criticism, positioning his government precariously in the political landscape as opponents prepare to strike.
