New 'Reassurance Force' Proposed for Ukraine Amid Ceasefire Talks

Planning is underway for a Multinational Force Ukraine (MFU) aimed at bolstering a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia. This proposed deployment of around 20,000 troops would primarily focus on air cover and naval presence rather than acting as a traditional peacekeeping force, with significant discussions ongoing about international support and capabilities.

The dialogue surrounding the deployment of a multinational force to Ukraine is gaining traction, with sources indicating that it should be referred to as a "reassurance force" rather than a conventional peacekeeping contingent. Dubbed the Multinational Force Ukraine (MFU), this initiative aims to solidify a forthcoming ceasefire and foster long-term stability within Ukraine amid ongoing conflict.

The MFU would provide critical air protection to secure Ukrainian airspace and maintain a naval presence in the Black Sea, facilitating safe trade routes. Although discussions suggest a troop strength of approximately 20,000, experts caution that this number may not be large enough to actively enforce peace, thus positioning the forces primarily in protective roles near cities, ports, and crucial energy sites.

In an effort to ease tensions, proposals indicate that the MFU would avoid engagement in eastern Ukraine, where active conflict persists, thereby reassuring Russia that the deployment is not viewed as a direct threat. Kremlin officials, including President Vladimir Putin, have expressed firm opposition to any ceasefire arrangement involving Western troops on Ukrainian soil.

Rather than acting as a traditional peacekeeping entity—such as those mandated by the United Nations or NATO, which typically require mutual consent and impartiality—the MFU would directly align with Ukraine in deterring further Russian hostility. The multinational troops will not directly oversee the ceasefire, a responsibility designated to Ukrainian forces and Western surveillance assets.

Strategic discussions also involve the assessment of air capabilities, including warplanes, to maintain air security during the ceasefire. Moreover, deliberations on ensuring shipping safety in the Black Sea are crucial and may involve measures like mine-clearing operations and naval task force deployment.

Significant uncertainty looms regarding the extent of U.S. involvement, with indications that American military support might not extend to air or intelligence cover for European forces. As Europe forges ahead to develop a competent security framework for Ukraine, it remains to be seen if the proposal will entice a change in U.S. policy.

Ultimately, the viability of the MFU and all related operations hinges on the establishment of a ceasefire, a prospect met with skepticism among some Ukrainians who doubt Russia's commitment to concluding hostilities.