Examining the Leaked US Draft Plan to Conclude the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Fri Nov 21 2025 19:25:08 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

As details emerge from a leaked US draft proposing a potential resolution to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, questions arise about territory, military capabilities, and future alliances.

The recently leaked US plan to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict suggests several contentious measures, including the handover of disputed territories in eastern Ukraine to Russian control and a significant reduction in Ukraine's military personnel. The proposal also asserts Ukraine's future as eligible for EU membership while explicitly excluding NATO membership, raising concerns among Ukrainian officials about sovereignty and security guarantees.

The draft US-Russia peace plan has been widely leaked and we now know that it proposes to hand over those areas of Ukraine's industrial eastern Donbas region still under Ukrainian control to the de facto control of Vladimir Putin's Russia.

Latest versions of the text also call for Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces to 600,000 people.

But what else is known about the text and who stands to benefit from it most?

What are the key points?

There are 28 key points and several could be acceptable to Ukraine, while others seem vague and imprecise.

Ukraine's sovereignty would be confirmed and there would be a total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, along with robust security guarantees for Kyiv and a demand for snap elections in 100 days.

If Russia were to invade Ukraine a robust co-ordinated military response is proposed along with a restoration of sanctions and a scrapping of the deal.

Although elections are impossible in Ukraine due to martial law, they could be held if a peace deal is signed.

However, there is no clarity on who would provide security guarantees, which fall short of a NATO-style Article Five commitment.

Handover of Ukraine's territory and cut in armed forces

Among the most contentious proposals are Ukraine handing over its own unoccupied territory and cutting the size of its armed forces, with plans for Ukraine to withdraw from parts of Donetsk Oblast and limit its military personnel.

Such territorial adjustments, including ceding areas like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, are likely unacceptable to Ukrainians, and limiting military personnel to 600,000 infringes on sovereignty.

Ukraine's future - with EU but not NATO

The draft proposes that Ukraine enshrines in its constitution that it will not join NATO while being eligible for EU membership and receiving short-term market access.

This compromises Ukraine's strategic alliances, as NATO membership is a constitutional commitment.

Bringing Russia back from isolation

The plan implies reinstating Russia into the global economy and the G8 grouping, despite current sanctions and the ongoing conflict.

What about Russia's frozen assets?

A notable component of the draft suggests using $100bn of frozen Russian assets for rebuilding Ukraine, where the US would take a significant profit share, raising concerns about the allocation of financial responsibility.

What is not in the plan?

The document does not address limitations on Ukraine's military arms, specifically long-range weaponry, which poses a security challenge for the region.

Is this a definitive peace plan?

Reports indicate a fast timeline for agreement but officials emphasize that the draft is more of a framework and not a finalized proposal.

Is the draft a Putin wishlist?

Some analysts suggest that many aspects of the plan cater to Russia's interests, including territorial handovers and vague wording on key concessions, despite cautious responses from Moscow.