In brief
Sheikh Hasina, once a pivotal ally for India in South Asia, has been sentenced to death in Bangladesh, raising complex diplomatic issues for India. While India has provided asylum, the request for extradition creates a predicament as the new interim government in Bangladesh shifts its stance, fostering ties with other nations. The future of India-Bangladesh relations remains uncertain following upcoming elections and amidst growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh.
For India, few friendships have been as strategically valuable - and as politically costly - as its long embrace of Bangladesh's former leader Sheikh Hasina.
During 15 years in power, she delivered what Delhi prizes most in its periphery: stability, connectivity, and a neighbour willing to align its interests with India's rather than China's.
These days she is in India but has been sentenced to death by a special tribunal in Bangladesh for crimes against humanity over her crackdown on student-led protests, which led to her ousting.
The 2024 demonstrations forced her to flee and paved the way for Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus to lead an interim government. Elections are due early next year.
The fallout from all this has created a diplomatic bind: Dhaka wants Hasina extradited, but Delhi has shown no inclination to comply - making her death sentence effectively unenforceable.
What Delhi intended as humanitarian asylum is turning into a long and uncomfortable test of how far it is willing to go for an old ally, and how much diplomatic capital it is prepared to burn in the process.
Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert, says India faces several unappealing options.
It could hand Hasina over, which it really doesn't want to do. It could maintain the status quo, though that will become increasingly risky for Delhi once a newly elected government takes office next year.
Alternatively, it could press Hasina to stay silent, which she is unlikely to accept as she continues to lead her Awami League party.
The last option would be to find a third country to take her in, which is also fraught with complications.
Extraditing Hasina is out of the question; India's ruling party and opposition alike view her as a close friend. India prides itself on not turning on its friends, according to Kugelman.
What makes this moment awkward for Delhi is the sheer depth of the India–Bangladesh relationship, rooted in India's pivotal role in Bangladesh's birth.
Bangladesh is India's biggest trading partner in South Asia. Total trade reached nearly $13 billion last year, with Bangladesh running a sizeable deficit, heavily reliant on Indian raw materials.
India has provided extensive credit and infrastructural support to Bangladesh over the past decade. This interdependence complicates any potential rift.
However, Bangladesh's interim government is quickly rebalancing its foreign ties, showing signs of moving towards China and Pakistan.
Public sentiment also reflects this change, with a survey revealing only 11% of Bangladeshis hold a positive view of India, compared to over 75% who view China positively.
For Delhi, the challenge is managing an ally in exile while securing a neighbor crucial to its security strategy. India must navigate a complex political landscape in Bangladesh carefully, especially as it approaches elections.
Experts suggest that India should engage quietly and patiently, weighing its relationship with whichever government emerges next.
Ultimately, how the new Bangladeshi government deals with the Hasina factor will determine the future of India-Bangladesh relations.
