In brief
The Copernicus Climate Change Service, part of the European Union’s climate monitoring system, announced that 2026 is virtually certain to see global average temperatures exceed 1.5 °C, the internationally agreed target. This would mark the second calendar year, after 2024, in which such levels are reached. The finding underscores the urgency of intensified climate action to prevent further warming.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union’s official climate monitoring arm, released a statement on Friday indicating that the year 2026 is virtually certain to see the planet’s average temperature rise above the 1.5 °C threshold that marks the upper limit of the Paris Agreement’s target. This forecast would make 2026 the second consecutive calendar year—following 2024—to surpass the 1.5 °C mark relative to pre‑industrial conditions.
In a brief communiqué, the service explained that the new assessment was based on the latest data from global temperature monitoring networks and high‑resolution climate models. “Global average temperatures in 2026 are now virtually certain to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre‑industrial levels,” the service said, noting that the 2024 record may be only the first of a series of years that breach the threshold.
The 1.5 °C benchmark has been a central pillar of international efforts to curb climate change, with the Paris Agreement aiming to limit the rise in average global temperature to well below this figure. The European Union’s Copernicus system regularly publishes such updates, offering a high‑level snapshot of climate trends for policymakers and the public.
Officials from the European Commission and national governments have broadly acknowledged the Copernicus findings as a call to accelerate policy measures. While the report does not detail specific actions, it signals that the latest climate trajectory will be a key factor for forthcoming European policy reviews and national adaptation strategies.
At the time of the statement, Xinhua reported the update, describing the Copernicus “virtually certain” forecast as a “flash” report that underlines the need for urgent climate mitigation work to keep global mean temperatures below the critical threshold.
The European Union’s climate monitoring framework—integrated through the Copernicus programme—has become a benchmark for worldwide climate assessments. Its repeated warnings of transgression of the 1.5 °C mark are part of a longstanding series of scientific notifications that feed into international climate negotiations, national policy planning, and emergency response mechanisms across member states.
As the scientific community recasts 2026 as another likely year of record‑high temperatures, European governments are expected to revisit the progress made under the Paris Agreement and evaluate the effectiveness of climate action plans. The Copernicus forecast adds weight to legal and policy discussions that seek to hold nations accountable for their emissions pledges.
For now, the Copernicus Climate Change Service’s 2026 forecast stands as the latest scientific indicator that climate aims set under the Paris Agreement are increasingly under challenge. The explanation and consideration of the risk of an additional calendar year above the target will likely shape the next rounds of European climate policy debates in the coming months.