In brief
India – the world’s largest sugar consumer – has seen prices climb nearly 40% over two months, prompting the government to import a million tonnes for the first time in 15 years. The move follows a dip in production to 30.6 million tonnes, short of the 34.3‑million‑tonne estimate, and a surge in demand during the festival season. Experts point to dry monsoons, disease and higher ethanol diversion as key factors, while the government cites export‑cutting delays and global supply tightness. The import will provide a buffer, but the episode exposes the fragile nature of India’s sugar supply chain and the need for better forecasting.
India’s sweet season is hit by a sharp sugar price surge, as the country’s government imports a million tonnes for the first time in a decade.
The price of one kilogram of sugar jumped from roughly 40–45 rupees in June to more than 58–60 rupees in August, before easing slightly, according to market reports. With festivals such as Ganesh Chaturthi, Dussehra and Diwali approaching, and a busy wedding season on the horizon, consumption is set to rise sharply.
India’s projected production for the current October 2025‑September 2026 season is now 30.6 million tonnes – 11 % below the earlier 34.3‑million‑tonne estimate – making the country short of the 28‑million‑tonne intake that it usually consumes.
The government first authorized 1.5 million tonnes of exports for the season, adding another 500,000 tonnes in February, but halted operations in May after about 800,000 tonnes had already left the country. The sudden change left a vacuum that the import of roughly 1 million tonnes now fills.
Experts blame uneven monsoon rains, disease and an unexpectedly high diversion of cane to ethanol for the shortfall. While the government argues that global supply constraints and over‑estimated domestic output drove the price spike, analysts warn that the export policy shift exposed a vulnerability in forecasting.
In response, the Indian government will allow sugar refineries in special economic zones to sell duty‑free sugar for three months and will urge mills to start crushing cane a fortnight early, hoping to build stocks before the new harvest begins in October.
The import arrives at a time when global sugar production is expected to fall, driven by El Niño‑related rain gaps in Thailand, heavy rain in Brazil’s cane harvests and heatwaves affecting Europe’s beet crop. The news comes amid a broader debate over how much cane is being diverted to produce ethanol for India’s mandatory E20 fuel blend, a process that can reduce available sugar.
