Are we any closer to peace in Ukraine?

After a frantic, often confusing few days of diplomacy, Donald Trump seems to think so.

We're getting very close to a deal, he told reporters on Tuesday.

For his part, Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky, who had looked and sounded grim over the weekend, said there were now many prospects that can make the path to peace real.

There are significant results, he said, after reviewing the results of Sunday's key discussions in Geneva, and there is still much work to be done.

But from the Russians, apart from some discontented mutterings about European involvement and unauthorized leaks, the response has been somewhat muted.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Wednesday that Moscow viewed some elements of the latest draft positively but many require special discussions among experts.

Given the gulf that exists between Ukraine and Russia on many key issues – including territory, NATO membership, who should pay for Ukraine's reconstruction, and accountability for war crimes – it is hard to see all the necessary pieces falling into place anytime soon.

Last Wednesday already seems like aeons ago. That is when a leaked draft of a 28-point US plan to end the war first emerged, causing consternation in Kyiv and sending European diplomats scrambling to limit the perceived damage.

In some ways, it felt like a re-run of events in August, when anxious European leaders rushed to Washington to bend Trump's ear after the American president rolled out the red carpet to Putin in Alaska.

By the weekend, the Europeans had drafted a counter-proposal, also 28 points long, which replaced the blunt territorial concessions of the US plan with negotiations on territorial swaps and stiffened the language on security guarantees, a key concern of Kyiv.

A joint US-Ukrainian statement, issued after the talks wrapped up, spoke of highly productive discussions, with an emphasis on achieving a sustainable and just peace.

Ukrainian officials appeared relieved, noting that contentious issues around territory and future NATO relations had been set aside for further negotiation.

But real uncertainties remain regarding the specific security guarantees Ukraine might receive as it moves closer to potential agreements with Russia.

The delicate balance of interests involved poses significant challenges ahead, with both Trump’s administration and European allies furiously working to craft a path forward.

As the talks continue, the stakes for Ukraine remain high, and the outcome remains uncertain as authorities and diplomats strive for a conclusive resolution.