Putin's Diplomatic Dance in Delhi: Oil, Defense, and Geopolitical Repercussions

Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived for a two-day visit to India, warmly welcomed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of an important annual summit between the two nations. Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, this visit comes at a time when India faces increased pressure from the United States to curtail its oil purchases from Russia.

India and Russia have maintained a strong friendship, rooted in decades of cooperation, particularly in defense and energy. Currently, India is experiencing a significant rise in crude oil purchases from Russia, which soared from 2.5% of its oil imports before the Ukraine crisis to about 35% as discounted Russian oil became appealing amid Western sanctions.

The backdrop of this meeting is critical as the U.S. administration under Donald Trump has expressed concerns regarding India’s oil imports from Russia, viewing them as a means to support the Kremlin's ongoing military operations. As a result, India's oil purchasing policies are likely to be a significant talking point during Putin's visit.

Another focus will be defense sales, an ongoing priority for Russia since the Soviet era. India is reportedly interested in acquiring advanced Russian fighter jets and air defense systems. However, India also wants to diversify its defense imports to reduce reliance on Russia, which has resulted in a notable decrease in Russian arms, from 72% of India’s defense imports in 2010-2015 to 36% in recent years.

With the looming pressures from the West, Modi is tasked with the challenge of showcasing India's strategic autonomy while still navigating its enduring relationship with Moscow. As India strives to balance its ties with Russia against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with Western allies over trade disputes, the outcomes of this visit will hold substantial implications for India's geopolitical stance.

This week’s discussions are not merely a nostalgia for Cold War diplomacy; they represent an intricate negotiation over economic partnerships, defense commitments, and the potential reshaping of regional alliances.

Putin and Modi during their meeting in Delhi
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet in Delhi.