What Are the Goals of the Iran War?
Most people, although not everybody, want this war to end as quickly as possible. But on what terms? That is where positions diverge.
The United States
President Donald Trump's war aims have been somewhat opaque, appearing to vacillate between a simple curtailment of Iran's nuclear programme, to capitulation to all US and Israeli demands, to the total collapse of the Islamic Republic regime.
So far, Iran has neither capitulated nor collapsed. But its military has been severely weakened by 16 days of relentless precision bombing. Indirect talks between the US and Iran in Geneva in February, mediated by Oman, were making progress on the nuclear file.
The Omanis say Iran was prepared to make major concessions that offered significant reassurance Tehran was not pursuing a nuclear weapon. However, what Iran was not prepared to discuss was curtailing or cancelling its ballistic missile programme nor its support for proxy groups around the region, like the Houthis in Yemen or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In an ideal world for Washington, and for many of its allies, this war ends with the collapse of the rule of the ayatollahs, to be swiftly replaced by a peaceful, democratically elected government that no longer poses a threat to its people or its neighbours. But as of Monday, that shows no sign of happening.
A next best result for the US would be if a severely damaged Islamic Republic were to then modify its behaviour, stop mistreating its citizens and end its support for radical militias in the region. Again, this looks unlikely after Iran chose as its new supreme leader, a man most likely to irritate Washington in the form of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of his late, hardline predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran
Iran wants the war to stop as quickly as possible but not at any price—meaning it won't cave in to all Washington's demands. It knows it possibly has the strategic patience to outlast Trump in this war, plus it has geography on its side.
With the longest coastline of any Gulf state, Iran has the capacity to threaten shipping that carries around 20% of the world's oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Officially, Iran says the war must end with a cast-iron guarantee that it won’t be attacked again and it also wants war reparations for the billions of dollars' worth of damage done by US and Israeli airstrikes. Despite knowing this is unlikely, Iran's leadership only has to survive this conflict to present it as a victory.
Israel
Of the three combatant nations—the US, Iran, and Israel—the Israelis seem to be in the least hurry to end this war. They want to see as much as possible of Iran’s ballistic missile stocks destroyed, along with storage depots, command and control centres, radar sites, and IRGC bases.
Israel views Iran's missile capabilities and suspect nuclear programme as an existential threat. The ongoing military actions are aimed at diminishing Iran's military capabilities before a potential ceasefire.
The Gulf States
The Gulf Arab states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman—thought they could live with the Islamic Republic until now. However, they have been incensed by almost daily bombardments from Iran's drones and missiles despite their reluctance to support this war.
As the conflict continues to unfold, these nations now face a choice about their future relations with Iran and the ongoing US engagement in the region.
