In brief
Local elections on 4 November saw South Africans cast ballots amid complaints of corruption and service failures. The African National Congress could fall below 40% of the vote, while no single party will win outright major metros, making coalitions inevitable. The results will prefigure the 2029 national elections and an ANC leadership contest as President Cyril Ramaphosa steps down in 2027.
The municipal election held on 4 November in South Africa marked a turning point in the country’s democratic process. Voters in 213 councils across 29 provinces turned out to elect mayors, councillors and a chief executive, amid growing frustration over corruption, high crime rates and ongoing service delivery failures. Observers say the outcome could see the African National Congress (ANC) fall below 40% of the overall vote share for the first time, a historic low that places it on an unlikely path toward majority rule in any major metro.
In 2021 the ANC first slipped below 50% of votes in municipal polls, a historic moment that foreshadowed the party’s loss of its absolute majority in Parliament in 2024. Today’s local contests are seen as a test of the ANC’s resilience as election officials open the polls at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and close them at 9 p.m. (1900 GMT). Early polling, released by IPSOS, shows the ANC’s support line sliding well toward 40%, while the Democratic Alliance (DA), the main opposition, is projected to make gains in the commercial hub of Johannesburg.
Johannesburg’s mayorship is the election’s marquee prize. DA candidate Helen Zille, who hosted an energetic campaign at the city’s new civic center, is expected to gather the most votes but may not secure the outright majority that would eliminate the need for a coalition.
Other notable metros include Tshwane, which houses the administrative capital Pretoria, and eThekwini, home to the port city of Durban and a stronghold for former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party. While the DA is favoured to retain control of Cape Town, the poll results indicate that if no single party gains a decisive lead in these large councils, coalition governments will become inevitable, a scenario that has already plagued local governance under the ANC.
The ANC’s impending electoral setback is intertwined with public confidence. In addition to the on-the-ground service failures—power cuts, water scarcity, and elevated unemployment—the party has suffered from a series of corruption scandals that have eroded its legitimacy. “Municipal failures have contributed to declining public trust and confidence in democratic governance,” said Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC’s president, during a briefing on Wednesday. “This election is an opportunity to turn this around.”
Ramaphosa’s remarks come at a time when his leadership is nearing its procedural end: he is slated to step down as the ANC’s party leader in 2027, paving the way for a succession contest that could reshape the party’s future in a country still held together by the legacy of Nelson Mandela’s fight against apartheid.
The 2026 municipal elections therefore have stakes that extend well beyond local politics. As the largest municipal election since the 1994 transition, the results will set the political climate heading into the 2029 national election, where the ANC’s share of the vote will be a key indicator of its ability to contest a national majority once again.
The potential for coalition governments at the local level also raises questions about accountability. Critics contend that coalition arrangements have led to policy paralysis, hampering the delivery of essential utilities such as water and electricity. The ANC’s experience in 2024, when it had to align with the DA and other minor parties after losing its majority in Parliament, highlighted the fragility of such arrangements. Protest marches in Pretoria yesterday highlighted citizens’ impatience with a system that has stalled on addressing crime and workforce development.
According to the latest IPSOS poll, the ANC could see its vote share dip even further than the 45.59% recorded in 2021. The DA, meanwhile, is gaining the upper hand in the Southern Gauteng region, with strong campaign pushes that address corruption and service failures directly. The African Muslim Council warns that if the ANC’s decline opens the door for yet another party, there may be a difficulty in maintaining a stable Lagos like Johannesburg, a city already beset by budget constraints and unpredictable municipal transfers.
In an interview with the national broadcaster on Thursday, the head of the municipal council council in Port Elizabeth expressed concern about the possibility of a “deadlock” that could lead to the appointment of a municipal management committee. “The council must rally around a solution that keeps service delivery intact,” he said. “The electorate wants real change, not just rebranding.”
Looking beyond the municipal gates, the 2026 elections are also happening against a backdrop of a record-high crime rate, with violent incidents in major metros tripling in the last two years. The ANC’s declining support may spur a larger conversation about public safety, as several city councils plan to set up joint police response units to reduce crime in neighborhoods that have historically received limited attention.
Moreover, the outcomes will echo within the ANC’s internal hierarchy. Ramaphosa’s offered optimistic conversation that the party has a chance to regain public trust reflects a long-anticipated revival that many senior ANC members hope to achieve. Should the party fail to rebound, the succession race expected in 2027 could see an ideological shift, with younger leaders pushing for a wider range of policies, including stronger environmental and economic reform to mitigate the ongoing economic downturn.
In an implicit nod to the participatory potential of the upcoming local vote, mechanisms for public accountability were highlighted by the Election and Boundaries Commission (EBC). The commission recorded a turnout of 42% in the 2021 municipal elections, a modest figure that underscores the systemic challenge of engaging citizens in the democratic process. “If the public can see a tangible change in their day-to-day lives, we expect future elections to see higher participation,” the EBC said. The institution also stated that voters will know that the thresholds for selecting a mayor or a council in any municipal governance structure are now lower, thereby giving smaller parties a greater chance to negotiate effective coalitions.
Given the current trajectory, civic groups are calling for reforms that include independent auditing of local servers, transparent procurement processes, and a clear accountability framework measured against service delivery outcomes. A coalition governed metropolis will need to establish a checks-and-balances system to ensure that community needs remain at the forefront of policy decisions.
Overall, while voters cast ballot boxes on 4 November, the long-term picture indicates a potential realignment of South Africa’s political landscape, anchored by the stark decline in ANC support, the realistic possibility of coalition rule at the local level, and the looming 2029 national election. The constituency—from downtown Johannesburg to rural nudivandani—has the power to dictate whether the ANC’s legacy will be expanded, redefined, or curved out of the political sphere altogether, as the 2026 municipal elections become a fulcrum in the democratic fabric of the country.
