Iran's Authoritarian Regime: Slowly Dying or Resilient?

In a recent analysis, Jeremy Bowen reflects on the dynamics of the Iranian regime as protests intensify amid soaring inflation and economic instability. Despite hopes for an imminent collapse akin to 'gradually then suddenly,' Bowen posits that the regime still displays a notable level of resilience.

Challenges facing daily Iranian life, including food price inflation exceeding 70% and the impact of renewed sanctions from Western countries, have pushed citizens’ frustrations to the surface. Nevertheless, the Islamic regime has responded fiercely, showcasing the loyalty of its security forces, particularly the IRGC, which remains a formidable force committed to preserving the current system.

Bowen notes that historical lessons from other authoritarian governments illustrate the precarious balance of power amid civil unrest. Despite the rapid decline of other regimes under pressure, such as Bashar al-Assad's in Syria or Ben Ali's in Tunisia, he suggests that Iran's unique political structures and loyal internal forces contribute to its current strength.

The ongoing protests and the government's severe responses further complicate the landscape, as the Iranian populace continues to seek credible leadership. Bowen concludes that while the regime appears stressed, it has yet to reach the tipping point that would signal its downfall.