In brief
The 2026 Israeli election returned no majority in the 120‑seat Knesset. Netanyahu’s right‑wing bloc is projected to hold 53 seats, the opposition 48, and Arab parties are set to take a record 19 seats, prompting months of coalition negotiations amid a historic 77.7% turnout. Markets reacted sharply, with the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange falling as uncertainty grew.
With no single party holding a majority in Israel’s 120‑seat Knesset, the 2026 parliamentary election has left voters, politicians and markets scrambling for a new coalition. Early tallies show a 53‑seat Knesset for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right‑wing bloc, down 15 seats from the previous sitting parliament, while opposition forces led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot hold 48 seats, leaving 19 seats for Arab parties.
Netanyahu’s Likud party is projected to secure 26 seats, the largest share of any single party, but the bloc as a whole still falls 8 seats short of the 61‑seat majority required to form a government. The opposition coalition, built from a spectrum that includes the left‑leaning Democrats of Yair Golan and the hard‑right Yisrael Beiteinu of Avigdor Lieberman, also falls short of the governing threshold.
The Arab bloc is set to win a record 19 seats—12 for the Joint List and 7 for Ra’am—exceeding the previous high of 15 seats in 2020. The record has been catalyzed by a turnout that topped 77.7 percent of eligible voters, the highest level seen since the 1999 election.
Gadi Eisenkot said that the preliminary results point to “complete distrust in Netanyahu and the government of Oct. 7, of the Zionist majority and the majority of Israeli citizens.” He added, “If these are the final results, this is a victory for the statist‑Zionist majority in Israel.”
"The preliminary poll results point to complete distrust in Netanyahu and the government of Oct. 7, of the Zionist majority and the majority of Israeli citizens," Eisenkot said.
Benjamin Netanyahu told supporters that his right‑wing bloc held a decisive majority among the Jewish and Zionist public, and he described Likud as the “largest party in Israel.” He also said that Israel must “establish a strong, right‑wing, national government.”
"We must establish a strong, right‑wing, national government," Netanyahu said.
The partial results, with more than 85 percent of ballots counted, have weighed heavily on Israeli markets. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange’s benchmark TA‑35 index fell 1.81 percent, the broader TA‑125 index dropped 2.46 percent, and the TA‑90 index, tracking smaller companies, plunged 4.47 percent. Banks added to the decline, with the TA‑Banks‑5 index falling 4.85 percent.
Gad Lior, a senior analyst at the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, explained that the sell‑off was driven by political uncertainty and concerns that another Netanyahu‑led government might again struggle to address economic challenges, particularly the high cost of living. He also warned that fears of a renewed war with Iran weighed on investor sentiment.
"The sell‑off was driven by political uncertainty and concerns that another Netanyahu‑led government might again struggle to address economic challenges, particularly the high cost of living," Lior said.
The Israeli shekel fell 1.62 percent against the U.S. dollar, trading at 3.128 shekels per dollar, reversing earlier gains. Joseph Freiman, CEO of Israeli financial group Prico, told Xinhua that shifting election results had reversed the shekel's earlier gains, explaining that most projections during the election day favored the opposition bloc. However, as vote counting progressed, Netanyahu's bloc gradually took the lead, triggering a reversal in currency market sentiment.
"Shifting election results had reversed the shekel's earlier gains," Freiman told Xinhua.
Coalition Negotiations and the Future of Governance
Under Israel’s system, the Knesset must grant a majority to a candidate who can form a coalition within 28 days, subject to a possible 14‑day extension. If that candidate fails, the mandate passes to another member of parliament, and if all fails, the Knesset is dissolved and a new election called while the incumbent cabinet remains as caretaker.
President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders to decide who is best positioned to assemble a coalition. With the Arab‑dominated Ra’am and Joint List holding a decisive balance of power—17 seats as the counting was close to final—they could tip the scales in favor of either side. If Netanyahu’s bloc or Eisenkot’s opposition can secure Arab support, a new government could materialize; otherwise, the question remains whether a compromise will materialize or whether a repeat election will erupt.
The election highlighted a surge in Palestinian‑citizen turnout, estimated at about 80 percent—above the 1999 figures and above the turnout rate of mainland Jews. Analysts attribute the spike to the harsh treatment of Israel’s Palestinian minority following the Hamas‑led attack of 7 October 2023 and the ensuing genocide in Gaza. The record seats for Arab parties represent an institutional shift that could enhance minority representation, though it remains unclear whether they will be integrated into a governing coalition or remain in opposition.
In the coming week, final tallies are expected to be released by Friday, with official results to be published on 4 November. As Israel navigates a fragile political balance between a right‑wing majority, a diverse opposition, and a historically under‑represented Arab bloc, the country’s democratic institutions will be tested on how effectively they accommodate diverse voices while maintaining stability.
