Just seven days after he made the fateful decision to launch his coup against the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi on 1 February 2021, General Min Aung Hlaing made a promise; to hold elections, and return to civilian rule, within a year.
It has taken him five years to fulfill that promise. Today, the newly-elected parliament will choose him to be the next president. Min Aung Hlaing has already stepped down as armed forces commander, as required by the constitution before he can take the post of president. But this is civilian rule in name only.
The parliament, sitting for the first time since the coup, is filled with his loyalists. With the armed forces guaranteed one quarter of the seats, and the military's own party, the USDP, winning nearly 80% of the remaining seats in an election which was tilted heavily in its favour, this was a preordained outcome. More of a coronation than an election.
Military men are also likely to dominate the new government when it is formed. Min Aung Hlaing has ensured that a staunch ally, General Ye Win Oo, a hardliner with a reputation for brutality, replaces him at the head of the armed forces. He has also created a new consultative council, which will exercise paramount authority over civilian and military affairs. He is ensuring that in taking off his uniform, he does not dilute his power.
For many in Myanmar, little will change because the country remains in the grip of its military leaders.
For young activists like Kyaw Win – not his real name – all hope of change has gone. As a student, he was arrested for taking part in a flash mob protest against the coup in 2022 and tortured for a week, before being jailed. He was only recently released.
They beat me on my back with an iron rod. They burned me with cigarettes, and slashed my thigh with a knife. Then they stripped my underwear and sexually assaulted me. They interrogated me, but it was never clear what they wanted me to say, Kyaw Win recounted.
The five years since Min Aung Hlaing's coup have been a catastrophe for Myanmar. His decision to use lethal force against the mass protests ignited a civil war that has killed thousands, displaced millions, and ruined the economy. The military regime has ceded control of huge areas to armed resistance, leading to indiscriminate attacks that have destroyed schools, homes, and hospitals.
The UN estimates that more than 16 million people are now in need of life-saving assistance. Runaway inflation has collapsed living standards. Fuel shortages caused by external conflicts have compounded the dire situation.
Despite all this, Min Aung Hlaing's recent military parade showcased the regime's apparent confidence in its control. In his speech, he justified military intervention and framed opponents as armed terrorist factions, showing no remorse for the devastating impact of his rule.
As a result, the future of Myanmar appears bleak, with the potential for ongoing conflict and suffering under continued military governance.
