US-Iran Talks: A Stalemate or a New Beginning?

Sun Apr 12 2026 19:24:05 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

After the recent high-stakes negotiations in Islamabad, questions loom over the future of US-Iran relations and potential escalations. Despite a significant effort, leaders from both nations remain at a crossroads.

The recent high-level negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad aimed to address longstanding tensions over Iran's nuclear program and control of vital shipping routes. Despite extensive discussions, no agreement was reached, leaving both nations weighing the consequences of continued hostilities versus the potential for renewed dialogue. US Vice-President JD Vance has indicated that discussions may not be over, raising the stakes for future interactions between the two leaders. Observers question whether President Trump will choose to escalate tensions or seek further negotiations after the talks ended without consensus.

Twenty-one hours was not enough to end 47 years of hostility between Iran and the US.

The historic high-level talks in Islamabad, during a pause in weeks of grievous war, were always unlikely to end any other way. Calling this marathon negotiating session a failure belies the scale of the challenge in narrowing wide gaps on complex issues ranging from age-old suspicion about Iran's nuclear programme to new challenges this war has thrown up - most of all Iran's control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, whose closure is causing economic shocks worldwide.

To do a deal, they also needed to overcome a deep chasm of distrust. A day ago, it wasn't even certain the two sides would meet, and even more, sit down in the same room. A longstanding political taboo was broken. The urgent question now is: what happens next? What happens to the contested two-week ceasefire which pulled the world back from US President Donald Trump's alarming threat to destroy a whole civilisation in Iran? Would the US president be ready to send his negotiators back to the bargaining table?

We're hearing reports from sources here in Islamabad that some conversations have continued after US Vice-President JD Vance boarded his plane at sunrise, declaring the US delegation had made their final and best offer. Will the US now escalate or negotiate?

Both the US and the Iranian delegations came to Islamabad emboldened by their belief that theirs was the winning side in this war. And they engaged knowing that, if they failed, there was the option to keep fighting – whatever the spiralling pain for their own people and a world reeling from the cost of this conflagration.

There was also what Dr Sanam Vakil of Chatham House describes as a limited psychological understanding of the adversary and what compromises are needed for a real deal. Vance spoke of good news – we've had a number of substantive negotiations - and there was bad news: We have not reached an agreement. And he made it clear that was bad news for Iran much more than the United States of America.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei criticised the US's excessive demands and unlawful requests in a post on X. And its parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran's negotiating team, wrote that the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations. Iran is indicating it's ready to keep talking, with sentiments echoed in other concerned capitals.

If history provides any lessons, the last time Iran reached a nuclear deal with the US and other world powers in 2015, it took 18 months of breakthroughs and breakdowns. Trump has made it clear he doesn't want to get bogged down in protracted negotiations.

Pakistani journalist Kamran Yousef described this round as one of no breakthrough but no breakdown either. The world waits for a verdict, most of all from Trump.