US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has told the BBC that a small bit of economic pain is worthwhile for long-term international security. His statement comes as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran could plunge the global economy into recession if such tensions persist.


I wonder what the hit to global GDP would be if a nuclear weapon hit London... I am saying that I am less concerned about short-term forecasts, for long-term security, he remarked during the interview.


At the onset of the war, Iran was reported to have uranium enriched to 60% but did not have nuclear weapons. Despite concerns, the UK government indicated there was no assessment that Iran intended to target Europe with missiles.


Bessent expressed greater concern regarding the risk posed by Iran than the immediate economic impact, indicating that the biggest risks are often those hidden from view. He noted Iran's demonstrated capabilities with mid-range intercontinental ballistic missiles and their intent to develop a nuclear program.


According to the IMF's latest forecast, global growth is at risk, especially if oil prices soar further as a result of the conflict. The IMF projected a significant decline in global growth rates if oil and food prices remain high, with the fear that growth could plummet below 2% in 2026.


As the conflict has caused energy prices to surge, Bessent underscored that military measures taken against Iran would help eliminate 'tail risks' of nuclear threats to Western nations. He stated, Now we know for a fact that... they do have mid-range intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach London... and we know that they want a nuclear program. This sentiment reflects a serious commitment to ensuring global safety over short-term economic stability.


Following the latest developments, experts have noted that a prolonged conflict could lead to spiraling inflation, increased unemployment rates, and food insecurity in several countries. The IMF emphasized that even if hostilities cease soon, the fallout from the conflict would deeply impact oil supply lines, reminiscent of past global oil crises.