In the heart of Phoenix, Sandra Ramirez watched footage of immigration officers cracking down on migrants and knew her 2024 vote for Donald Trump was a mistake. 'There are a lot of people who are being harassed for the color of their skin, and that’s not right,' she said, breaking from her Democrat-voting family to cast a ballot for Trump. 'I’ll never go Republican again.'
Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters like Ramirez during the 2024 election, earning support that helped propel him to a second term. But as Republicans gear up for midterms this fall, signs of unraveling support are emerging. Recent Pew Research Center polling shows approval for Trump falling fast among Latino voters—a demographic he relied on to secure victory.
Support among Latino Trump voters shows signs of softening. Historically aligned with the Democratic Party, Latinos shifted significantly toward Trump in 2024, with 43% nationally voting for him compared to 35% in 2020. This change was partly attributed to concerns about the economy. However, Trump’s aggressive immigration crackdown—promised during the campaign—has triggered backlash. An AP-NORC poll found more than half of Latino adults report knowing someone impacted by his administration’s enforcement actions.
More than a year into Trump’s second term, polling suggests a significant drop in support among Latinos who voted for him. A Pew Research Center poll conducted in April shows approval fell from 93% to 66% among Latino voters who cast ballots for Trump, while non-Latino approval dropped from 95% to 79%. This national shift could prove crucial in tight elections in swing counties like Maricopa, where a third of residents are Latino and one in four is an immigrant.
In South Phoenix, opinions reflect deep divisions. Albert Rodriguez, a tattoo artist, once supported Trump but now regrets it after seeing ICE raids target ordinary people. 'He promised to go after immigrants who were criminals, but ICE has been 'hitting the paleta man,' referring to vendors selling frozen treats.' Ronnie Martinez, an Army veteran, backs Trump’s border security efforts but opposes raids on families: 'The border is only a hop, skip and a jump to our south. I don’t want illegal alien criminals coming from Guatemala, Venezuela, Central America.' Yet he criticizes Democratic officials for not cooperating with enforcement.
Arizona’s political history amplifies these tensions. The state’s 2010 SB1070 law, which required police to check immigration status, and Sheriff Joe Arpaio’s high-profile raids in Latino communities created lasting trauma. Activists see today’s crackdown as an extension of those policies. 'We were the lab where they implemented a lot of this with Sheriff Joe and now it’s all over the United States,' said Salvador Reza, a longtime Phoenix activist.
Economic concerns are also fueling dissent. Former Republican Governor Jan Brewer warns: 'With the inflation and the cost of living and the gasoline and the wars, I don’t know if they can afford to be a Trump Republican.' Earl Wilcox, a Phoenix restaurant owner, says: 'I don’t think the Republican Party will have the support it did the second time around, and I think it started with the raids.'
As the 2028 election approaches, the GOP faces a stark choice. To retain Latino support, Republicans must address concerns about enforcement tactics and economic hardship. In Arizona—where Democrats now hold all three major statewide offices—the outcome could determine national political trends for years. For Sandra Ramirez, the regret is personal but emblematic of a shifting landscape: 'We need leaders who care about our community,' she said. 'If Trump can’t fix this, then it’s time for a change.'
For communities across Arizona, the path forward remains unclear as tensions between border security and community well-being intensify.}
Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters like Ramirez during the 2024 election, earning support that helped propel him to a second term. But as Republicans gear up for midterms this fall, signs of unraveling support are emerging. Recent Pew Research Center polling shows approval for Trump falling fast among Latino voters—a demographic he relied on to secure victory.
Support among Latino Trump voters shows signs of softening. Historically aligned with the Democratic Party, Latinos shifted significantly toward Trump in 2024, with 43% nationally voting for him compared to 35% in 2020. This change was partly attributed to concerns about the economy. However, Trump’s aggressive immigration crackdown—promised during the campaign—has triggered backlash. An AP-NORC poll found more than half of Latino adults report knowing someone impacted by his administration’s enforcement actions.
More than a year into Trump’s second term, polling suggests a significant drop in support among Latinos who voted for him. A Pew Research Center poll conducted in April shows approval fell from 93% to 66% among Latino voters who cast ballots for Trump, while non-Latino approval dropped from 95% to 79%. This national shift could prove crucial in tight elections in swing counties like Maricopa, where a third of residents are Latino and one in four is an immigrant.
In South Phoenix, opinions reflect deep divisions. Albert Rodriguez, a tattoo artist, once supported Trump but now regrets it after seeing ICE raids target ordinary people. 'He promised to go after immigrants who were criminals, but ICE has been 'hitting the paleta man,' referring to vendors selling frozen treats.' Ronnie Martinez, an Army veteran, backs Trump’s border security efforts but opposes raids on families: 'The border is only a hop, skip and a jump to our south. I don’t want illegal alien criminals coming from Guatemala, Venezuela, Central America.' Yet he criticizes Democratic officials for not cooperating with enforcement.
Arizona’s political history amplifies these tensions. The state’s 2010 SB1070 law, which required police to check immigration status, and Sheriff Joe Arpaio’s high-profile raids in Latino communities created lasting trauma. Activists see today’s crackdown as an extension of those policies. 'We were the lab where they implemented a lot of this with Sheriff Joe and now it’s all over the United States,' said Salvador Reza, a longtime Phoenix activist.
Economic concerns are also fueling dissent. Former Republican Governor Jan Brewer warns: 'With the inflation and the cost of living and the gasoline and the wars, I don’t know if they can afford to be a Trump Republican.' Earl Wilcox, a Phoenix restaurant owner, says: 'I don’t think the Republican Party will have the support it did the second time around, and I think it started with the raids.'
As the 2028 election approaches, the GOP faces a stark choice. To retain Latino support, Republicans must address concerns about enforcement tactics and economic hardship. In Arizona—where Democrats now hold all three major statewide offices—the outcome could determine national political trends for years. For Sandra Ramirez, the regret is personal but emblematic of a shifting landscape: 'We need leaders who care about our community,' she said. 'If Trump can’t fix this, then it’s time for a change.'
For communities across Arizona, the path forward remains unclear as tensions between border security and community well-being intensify.}
