SpaceX investors have swung from celebration to apparent concern in its first month as a publicly traded company.
When SpaceX shares reached the public market on 12 June, a heat‑beat investor frenzy followed. Though the company had priced its shares at $135, the price shot to $150 that first day, climbing to $176 before closing at $160.95. It became the largest IPO ever, with intraday highs peaking at $225 the next week – that surpassed Amazon and Microsoft in market value.
Keith Snyder of CFRA noted, “With Elon Musk, any company he touches gets people excited,” and highlighted how the story tied to AI. Willy Lee, an investor at Neosteller, added that “Everyone saw SpaceX as an AI story,” referencing the 2025 acquisition of xAI (renamed SpaceXAI), the controversial chatbot Grok, and a start in leasing data centre capacity to other tech firms.
Starlink’s pricing shift in the Memphis area saw shares fall 8% that day. Combined with a more realistic view of its primary business – rocket manufacturing and satellite operations – the company’s shares have slipped.
Following its addition to the Nasdaq‑100 on 7 July, SpaceX fell 4.4%, while an earlier FTSE inclusion gave only a modest boost. At the end of its first month, shares hovered around $145, roughly 18% below the opening day high and 35% below their peak.
Retail investors who bought during the first five days face potential losses. “If you bought around the first tick you’re definitely underwater,” echoed Snyder, who also warned the stock may resemble a “meme stock.” He projects a further decline to about $115 per share, valuing the company around $1.5 trillion.
Morgan Stanley, leading the IPO, sets a $300 target price – a 33% rise from the current peak – and believes the dip will be temporary. The first public earnings report, likely early August after the lock‑up period ends, could either validate the optimism or compound the volatility.
SpaceX’s projected $1 trillion in 2030 revenue – 55 times its $18bn last‑year earnings – remains aspirational. Musk has already leveraged share price spikes to acquire enterprises, like the Cursor AI start‑up in an all‑stock deal worth $60bn, effectively buying it “for free.”
While enthusiasm remains, analysts note that the company still has significant work to prove its future growth trajectory. Nonetheless, the suspense around forthcoming financial data and an expanding float continues to keep the market on edge.
