The insider trading suspicions looming over Trump's presidency
Throughout US President Donald Trump's second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements. The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president's most significant market-moving statements.
It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public. Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public. Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president's interventions.
9 March 2026: 'The war is very complete, pretty much'
Some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market. Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict was very complete, pretty much. Immediately after, oil traders reacted by selling, leading to a significant drop in prices.
23 March 2026: 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'
On 23 March, just two days after threatening to obliterate Iran's power plants, Trump announced productive conversations with Tehran, which surprised traders and led to further fluctuations in oil prices.
9 April 2025: 'Liberation Day' pause
When Trump planned tariffs on a wide array of goods, stock markets fell sharply. A week later, after announcing a pause on these tariffs, the stock market saw one of its largest single-day gains. This was preceded by heavy betting on the market rising, which raised suspicions about insider trading.
3 Jan 2026: Maduro seized
In January 2026, an account named Burdensome-Mix won a significant bet on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just before his seizure, leading to questions about potential insider knowledge.
28 Feb 2026: Strikes on Iran
Six accounts on a predictions market won $1.2 million by betting on strikes against Iran just before Trump's confirmation of the attacks.
While the SEC noted it was hard to prove insider trading, analysts pointed out that unusual trading volumes often align closely with Trump's public statements, raising concerns about market integrity.
The White House and financial authorities declined to comment on these allegations, with the SEC stating it would only investigate if clear evidence was available. As insider trading remains a contentious issue, the ongoing scrutiny shows the complex interplay between politics and market activity.
